Sunday, March 15, 2009

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Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
*Disclaimer: Any opinions or recommendations expressed on any third party website are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions, recommendations or necessarily the views of GoForex. GoForex does not provide any legal, tax, accounting or investment advice concerning the suitability or profitability of any security or investment. GoForex has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information on the website, however, does not guarantee its accuracy, and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from the content or your inability to access the website, for any delay in or failure of the transmission or the receipt of any instruction or notifications sent through this website. Any performance claims made by third-party advertisements on this site are not necessarily indicative of future results. ZuluTrade and the FCM are compensated by the difference between the bid and ask spread.

New to Forex

Never heard of Forex?
Forex, also called the Foreign Exchange Market, is the world's largest financial market, where traders buy and sell different currencies.
What's so special about Forex?
Here's a look at today's Forex market [click to see]. Note the price fluctuations. If you buy low and sell high, you make profits. If the market moves against you, then you incur losses. Unlike the stock market, when one currency goes down, there's always another currency going up, making Forex attractive to banks and hedge funds, business and retail investors.
How do I know what currencies to buy or sell?
When dealing with any market, there are two general approaches traders use to estimate how the market will move. The first, technical analysis, focuses on price patterns and uses charting tools to discover them. The second, fundamental analysis, accredits price fluctuations as being a product of economic and political events. Click here to view our free online training video!
How does leverage work?
Leverage enhances your profit potential while also increasing your risk of loss. With a leverage of 100:1, you are allowed to purchase up to 100 units of another currency with just 1 dollar. Click here to learn more about leverage.
Sounds exciting. How much should I start with?
The minimum deposit to start trading live at Forex Club is $10. However, $10 won't get you far. Even if you are a great trader, an account this small won't yield more than several dollars a day. If you are aiming for greater results, consider starting with a larger account. We recommend starting with $500. This will gain you access to Autochartist, a chart analysis service that identifies quality trading opportunities and emerging trends in real-time.

I want in. Where do I sign up?

Getting started with Forex has never been easier. All you need is a computer, an Internet connection and a program called Trading Platform. Install the trading platform on your computer and try Forex trading with 5,000 virtual dollars. Sign up for a free demo account now!
FREE Online Webinars
We welcome you to visit our free online webinars. Unlike normal seminars, webinars can be attended from your computer. All that you need is a fast internet connection. You can listed to the speaker and see what he is doing on his computer. You can type in your questions in chat and get answers in real-time. You will find the schedule of webinars below:Introduction to ExpressFX Wednesdays and Fridays at 4 pm GMT (12 pm Eastern time)Learn how to use ExpressFX to make trades and use market orders.How to Set Up and Customize Your Autochartist Tuesdays at 6 pm GMT ( 2 pm Eastern time)Learn how to read the signals for the best set ups and how to make the alerts work for you regardless of your current trading approach.Example Set Ups in the Live Market Thursdays at 4 pm GMT (12 pm Eastern time)Scan through current alerts to learn how to make the decisions that will lead up to potential trades. Learn how to compare multiple pattern alerts, use Forecast Regions as trade management and trade set ups, and confirm trending and non-trending pattern set ups.

Forex Ebooks, Systems & Strategies


Bird Watching in Lion Country - Retail Forex Trading Explained
When I wrote BWILC I knew it would be great, revolutionary and eye popping. What I didn't expect in my wildest fantasies was that individual readers would compare it favourably with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and Trading for a Living. Read more- DrForex (Dirk du Toit)



Black Dog Trading SystemIntroducing a new forex trading system from seasoned and professional trader, Dave Atkinson. This system uses clearly defined entry and exit rules and comes with full customer support. Get your hands on a copy of Dave Atkinson's, "Black Dog Trading System" receiving rave reviews from customers. Get the Mini-trend Finder - a second system absolutely free with your purchase of the Black Dog Trading System!Read more


Forex Profits
Forex Profits is a simple and straight forward mechanical strategy for trading the forex market using MACD and some clear rules for entering and exiting a trade. Written by Dr. Jeff Wilde, a trader with 15 years experience, Forex Profits could get you up and trading quickly in the forex market. Comes with a 60 day money-back guarantee. Read MoreSee also Ultimate Forex System by Jeff Wilde.




Ultimate Forex SystemFrom the author of Forex Profitscomes another simple strategy to trade the forex market. The Ultimate Forex System comes with a 38 page ebook and 17 videos to help you get up and trading quickly. Comes with an unconditional 60 day money back guarantee. Read More
Forex Trading StrategyLearn how to trade EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD or any other major currency pair by mastering a system that combines top level mathematics with the fundamental principles of human behaviour. Comes with a 60 day money-back guarantee. Read More
The Affluent Desktop Currency Trader
The Affluent Desktop Currency Trader is a step-by-step training manual that includes 9 separate trading strategies you can learn to apply to your everyday forex trading. Comes with a money-back guarantee. Read MoreGet Part 1 of "The Affluent Desktop Currency Trader" free!

Currency-Exchange Gamble Is Costing Polish Consumers

Low-Interest Loans in Swiss Francs Turn Calamitous as Zloty TumblesA Solidarity trade unionist held a banner during a demonstration in Warsaw this month. Defense workers rallied to demand that the government help save their jobs in downturn. (By Alik Keplicz -- Associated Press)
WARSAW -- Like many of its formerly communist neighbors in Eastern Europe, Poland has turned into a country of capitalist gamblers.
In recent years, as their economy boomed, millions of Poles became foreign-currency speculators, buying property, cars and consumer goods with loans denominated in low-interest Swiss francs. As the Polish currency, the zloty, soared in value, most borrowers found it cheaper to pay off their debts in Swiss money, even though few had ever been to Switzerland or knew what a franc looked like.
Since August, however, the zloty has unexpectedly collapsed, losing nearly half its value against the Swiss franc. About two-thirds of all Polish mortgage holders now face skyrocketing payments. If the zloty continues to tumble, analysts fear the problem could lead to a wave of defaults in the region, dealing a major setback to Europe's already weakened banking system.
"Just like the subprime mortgages were a wonderful idea in the United States as long as house prices kept rising, so it was with the Swiss-franc loans here," said Witold M. Orlowski, a former adviser to the Polish president and now chief economist for PricewaterhouseCoopers in Warsaw. "It was seen as a win-win game. There were warnings, but basically people ignored them."
Currency gambling has backfired in several other countries in Eastern and Central Europe. In Hungary, Romania and Ukraine, a majority of mortgages and other consumer loans were taken out in Swiss francs, euros, even Japanese yen -- all of which offered substantially lower interest rates than the Eastern European currencies.
The borrowing binge rested on the assumption that the Hungarian forint, Romanian leu and Ukrainian hryvnia would keep rising in value, or at least remain stable. But since last summer, those currencies have crashed.
Moody's credit-rating agency warned last month that the region's financial system was vulnerable to defaults on foreign-currency loans and that the problem could devastate the balance sheets of Western European banks operating in the region.
German, Austrian and Italian banks dominate finance in Eastern Europe. U.S. banks are less exposed, but a few, including Citibank and General Electric's Money Bank, have a substantial market share.
In Poland, people owing money in Swiss francs have seen their monthly payments rise by 50 percent or more since last summer. Few have defaulted. But analysts predict the number of bad debts will jump if the zloty remains weak much longer.
Marzena Rudkiewicz, 54, a Warsaw dentist, took an extra job this month at a government hospital fitting false teeth for pensioners, saying payments on a mortgage she took out to buy an apartment for her son in 2005 have ballooned by more than half. The mortgage is denominated in Swiss francs, but she is paid in zlotys and has to exchange the weak Polish currency to pay off the debt.
"I've had to change my life because I'm stuck with this loan," she said. "It's too painful to think about."
Rudkiewicz's husband, Jakub, an industrial designer, took out a Swiss-franc loan four years ago so his small firm could buy its own office space. At the time, his monthly payment was 1,600 zlotys. Now it's 2,400, at a time when he can least afford it; business has slowed since the onset of the global financial crisis last fall.

THE MARKET CAN BE PREDICTED

This was our forecast for the week
If you knew what was going to happen in the Forex market days in advance, do you think you could make money? What if you could be shown when the major directional movements would occur? Do you think this would help you in your trading?Our proprietary Forex trading forecasts do just that - they give you a directional forecast for the entire upcoming week - and with remarkable accuracy.
PROFITABLE FOREX SIGNALS FOR THE TOP 10 CURRENCY PAIRS
PREDICTS DIRECTION EACH WEEK WITH AMAZING ACCURACY
CAN PINPOINT THE TIME MAJOR DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS WILL OCCUR
AUTOMATE OUR FOREX SIGNALS WITH OUR METATRADER EA
ABSOLUTELY NO FOREX TRADING EXPERIENCE NECESSARY
AUTOMATE OUR FOREX SIGNALS WITH OUR METATRADER EA
ABSOLUTELY NO FOREX TRADING EXPERIENCE NECESSARY

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Overstimulated: Government Spending and Its Impact on Bonds

Overstimulated: Government Spending and Its Impact on Bonds


by Brandon Chapman, CMT
As the Obama administration settles in, many opaque revelations have emerged regarding possible policy action to handle banks and stimulate the economy. But among the uncertainty is a clear message that this administration and the Fed Chairman intend to spend our way out of the current economic slump. The efficacy of their actions and its eventual economical impact will likely create market indecision. Investors will do well to recognize where trading opportunities generated by these circumstances may arise.
Bonds ReactionAmidst early rhetoric from the Obama administration, Treasury bonds with long-term maturities have failed to provide investors with much of a safe haven from January’s recurring stock sell-offs. In fact, Treasury bonds with 10- and 30-year maturities were met with selling pressure as prices fell and yields moved higher. This reaction is in contrast to the buying that occurred as equities fell at the beginning of January.
InterpretationThere are two factors investors can take away from long-term Treasury rates’ significant move higher.
First, the proposed spending amount will likely cause higher inflation down the road, making investors nervous because of the length of time required for these bonds to mature as well as their extraordinarily low yields. Along with future inflation concerns is the strong chance the U.S. will issue trillions more in debt during the upcoming years. This will likely prompt many foreign governments to diversify away from U.S. debt.
Second, the market sell-off failed to yield the same degree of strain on investors that was so palpable amidst the November swoon. The bullish base that may be building kept major market gauges from testing the 2008 November 20 lows in January.
While it may be unrealistic to see bond yields hit multi-year highs any time soon, it may be reasonable to see rates return to levels during the 2008 October time frame.
Intermarket PerspectiveWhen analyzing any asset class - bonds, stocks, commodities or currencies - it is important to remember that a connection exists between them. With this in mind, watching their interaction may tell you something about where we are in the business cycle and what stock sectors or asset classes should be outperforming or underperforming.
As mentioned, the bonds sell-off that has seen long-term rates rise will help promote strength in equities in the short-run while money moves from one asset class to another. However, a potential sign to look for would be a decline or leveling off in the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. One way to easily track the dollar against a basket of other currencies is the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) - an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the U.S. dollar index.
As the U.S. dollar runs toward its October and November highs, gold prices are experiencing strong appreciation. Typically one expects to see an inverse relationship between gold and the greenback because of inflation implications. However, gold’s persistence to outperform equities during a recession and a rising dollar represents the demand for hard currency, while also supporting a rise in long-term bond yields, and for equities to continue to work out a bottom in coming months. An easy way to track gold’s movement is through the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
Setting UpHistorically, trading bonds has been cumbersome and quite difficult for individual investors. It was virtually impossible for an individual investor to short bonds. The emergence of ETFs has provided investors with the unprecedented ability to diversify across asset classes and easily trade bullish and bearish ends of most markets. However, it is important to consider the efficiency and liquidity of these investment types.
An ETF that allows investors to short bonds is the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT). This ETF not only tracks the inverse of the 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index but also seeks to make twice the daily movement of it. Figure 1 shows the large breakout on extraordinary volume that occurred at the beginning of January. To reach the low end of its range in October, it would have to move about $10.
Figure 1 - ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT)
ConclusionWhile a lot of uncertainty with financial stocks and what proposed solutions are likely to be put into action still exists, it seems clear that large deficits are in the cards. Because equities retraced nearly 50% from their 2007 highs and the unprecedented buying of long-term Treasuries in November and December of 2008, it appears that current long-term Treasury yields are unsustainable in the long-run. This means lower Treasury prices and higher yields; however, look to other markets to help support any outlook.Brandon Chapman, CMT, works as an investing coach for Investools, a subsidiary of thinkorswim Group, Inc. His weekly commentary can be found on http://www.investools.com/.

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